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stare 07-05-2019, 03:42
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Selective endpoints on the 2018 Reds: Games 109-126."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Farmers onlyFeaturesPlayoffsHistory/Hall of Fame18 Games At A Time18 Games at a time - Capsule 7New Prince Fielder Jersey ,6commentsSelective endpoints on the 2018 Reds: Games 109-126.ByMitchell ClarkAug 24, 2018,9:00am EDTShareTweetShareShare18 Games at a time - Capsule 7Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY SportsThis season went from interesting to boring pretty quickly, didn’t it? It wasn’t too long ago that the Reds were giving the best teams in the majors some serious fits and playing some seriously intriguing baseball. They were the healthiest they had been in about 4 years and things were a lot of fun. Tuning in wasn’t much of a chore because you knew that, for the first time in a while, you were getting competitive baseball.And then, all of a sudden, things turned dull. A couple hitters regressed, Schebler, Winker, and Votto got hurt, and the Reds slogged through the month of August. After playing 6 games above .500 in the months of June and July, August has been a drag, as they are 8-12 so far this month. After 4 years of losing, it’s easy to feel pretty negative about this team. Hell, I was planning on a negative outlook in this very section until I sat down to write it. But there’s actually a lot to look forward to with this team.Our own Charlie Scrabbles touched on it earlier yesterday, and he’s right. Without these injuries, this team would still be a hell of a lot of fun to watch. He also talked about drugs, which is also a lot of fun. But seriously, Eugenio Suarez is still mashing the ball and will still be doing it for the Reds for the next 5 years. We still have Joey Votto, who is even better than Suarez. Jose Peraza is coming into his own and so are Jesse Winker and Scott Schebler. Phil Ervin is shining in his first chance at extended playing time. That doesn’t even get to the starting pitchers, where Anthony DeSclafani, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle have all flashed brilliance at points this season. That also doesn’t get to guys like Nick Senzel, who will be contributing next year.Barring a trade, all of these guys are going to be around next year. While there are still holes to fill, especially on the pitching side Adrian Beltre Jersey , we can finally see where this team is going. The month of August hasn’t been as fun as June and July, and if this team is still banged up September won’t be much fun either. But this team has a direction, and I’m excited to see where it goes.All stats and notes are through Tuesday’s games.2018 Reds - Capsule 7Record: 8-10Season Strength of Schedule: .506 (4th hardest in NL; 10th hardest in MLB)Season RPI (ESPN): .490 (12th in NL; 22nd in MLB)[Previous: .489 - 12th NL; 21st MLB]Baseball Prospectus division odds: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)Baseball Prospectus post-season odds: 0.0% (Previous: 0.0%)Offense.266/.318/.431 slash line for capsule 7, compared to the NL average of .252/.315/.411 and .263/.340/.414 for capsule 6.The regulars, as defined by plate appearances: Barnhart, Votto, Gennett, Suarez, Peraza, Ervin Hamilton, Williams.The Reds hovered right around league average offensively for this capsule. Nothing really stood out about their performance, other than the fact that this offense is much less fun when Votto, Schebler, and Winker aren’t healthy. Jose Peraza continues to have the best season of his young career. He hit .329/.355/.562 in this capsule and had the 2nd best OPS (.917) among the regulars, which is something that I never thought I’d type. He had 3 dingers, 3 walks, and struck out 7 times, which was the fewest out of all the regulars. Nice work, kid. Phil Ervin has really impressed in his short stint of regular playing time. He hit /.304/.364/.609 for this capsule and led the team in OPS (.972). He has hit .302/.361/.483 over 133 PA’s in 2018. It’s obviously a small sample size, but it’s been encouraging to see what he has been able to do so far this season. He needs to continue getting regular playing time once Scott Schebler returns from the DL. Scooter Gennett had a little bit of a bounce back capsule, though he has been in a power slump since the All-Star break. He hit .314/.338/.471 over the last 18. His 2 home runs were only his 2nd and 3rd post-ASB, and he only walked 3 times against 17 strikeouts. Eugenio Suarez hit .279/.351/.485 over capsule 7, hitting 4 dingers and driving in 11. He also walked 6 times against 23 strikeouts. That strikeout number is interesting, as his strikeout total has really gone up over the 2nd half. He has struck out 108 times this season and 50 of those have come in the last 36 games. Joey Votto played in 11 games in this capsule, and pretty much all of them were on a bum knee after getting hit with a Ryan Madson pitch back on August 4. His .405 OBP was typical Votto, but his .290 SLG% showed how much his knee was hindering his power. DefenseTeam ERA of 4.77 for capsule 7, compared to the NL average of 3.98 and 5.03 for capsule 6.Welcome back Nolan Ryan Jersey , Anthony DeSclafani. This was by-far the best stretch he has put together since coming off the disabled list. He made 3 starts over this capsule that spanned 17.2 innings. He allowed only 2 earned runs, walked only 2 batters, and struck out 16. This is the side of him we all talk about when we say “When Disco gets healthy...” with optimism about how he can impact the rotation. While there still might be starts where he takes his lumps this season, things are looking very positive for Mr. Disco.Luis Castillo also threw the ball well in this capsule. Though his 4.02 ERA might not show it, he flashed some more of that brilliance that we saw after his call-up last season. Despite his start against Arizona where he was bit a little by the long ball, he has pitched really well since the All-Star break. That all was capped by a fantastic outing against the San Francisco Giants in his last start, where he allowed only 1 earned run and struck out 9 batters in a Reds’ victory.Matt Harvey made 3 starts in this capsule, one of which was bad and the other 2 were pretty dang good. After giving up 5 runs in only 4 innings against Washington on August 4, he gave up a combined 2 runs in 13.1 innings against the Diamondbacks and Giants. In all, he put up a 3.68 ERA over 17.1 innings of work. If that shutout start against San Francisco was his last in a Reds uniform, it was a good one to end on. We’ll know by the end of today, actually, if we’ll be writing about Matt Harvey anymore in 2018. Both Homer Bailey and Sal Romano took it on the chin pretty hard this capsule. Homer gave up 13 runs in 14.2 IP and allowed 4 dingers. Romano gave up 12 runs over 12.2 innings of work and really struggled with his command. He walked 7 batters in that time and put up a 5.2 BB/9.Robert Stephenson still has trouble with his control. He made 2 starts and lasted only 6.2 innings, walking 9 batters and striking out only 6. Raisel Iglesias and Jared Hughes continue to be the anchors of this bullpen. Iglesias didn’t walk a batter in 9.1 innings of work and recorded 12 strikeouts. Hughes obviously isn’t the strikeout pitcher like his teammate in the ‘pen, but he still had a good capsule. He threw 7.2 innings and allowed only 2 runs, walking only 1 and striking out 6.A team’s Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) is the percentage of balls in play that they’re able to convert into outs. The Reds’ DER is currently .688, which is good for 10th in the National League. The NL average DER is currently .693.The Next 1811 games at home, 7 on the road.14 of the next 18 against NL Central opponents.None of the next 18 are against American League teams.11 of the next 18 against projected 2018 playoff teams..518 combined winning % for teams in the next 18.The Reds havea serious chance to ruin some playoff hopes in their division, as they have series against Milwaukee, Chicago, and St. Louis. It’d be a real shame if they took part in ruining the season for the Cubs and Cardinals. Just a real shame. Brock Holt had the best year of his career in 2018, but how sustainable was it?"There are a number of things that stand out here, and that Holt had a clear head for the first time in a couple years was certainly the biggest factor in his performance ticking back up. That being said, while every area of his game got a little better, the part that looked most like his old self was on balls in play. Holt had always had a perception of luck around him back in 2014 and 2015, as he posted batting averages on balls in play of .349 and .350 in those seasons. Those are Joey Votto and Mike Trout numbers, not Brock Holt numbers. It seemed nearly impossible that he’d be able to sustain that Rougned Odor Jersey , even after doing it two years in a row. His BABIP then dropped below .300 in both 2016 and 2017, and our suspicions were confirmed. At least we though. Last year, the now-healthy Holt looked a lot more like his old self who burst onto the scene, finishing the year with a .337 BABIP.The question is, did we see another year filled with good fortune for Holt? Or can we accept now that Holt is a well above-average BABIP hitter with 2016 and 2017 being the outliers. The fact that those two years have the injury excuse certainly play in their favor, but we should probably look at the batted ball data, too. There, things do look Holt and confirm the eye test where Holt looked similar to his old self. Most notable was his line drive rate (per Fangraphs), which sat at a career-high 24 percent. For context, that put him in the top quarter of the league in that category. Holt also combined the line drives with a career-high hard-hit rate, though even his career-high rate of 29 percent was in the back-half of the league. Oddly enough, he also had the highest infield fly ball rate of his career, which is usually an indicator of bad contact. Throw in a more pull-happy approach than usual, it is a little strange that he was able to post such a high BABIP. David Butler II-USA TODAY SportsWhat plays into his favor is simply the kind of batted balls he hits, keeping the ball low to the ground. Line drives obviously lead to the highest BABIP, but fly balls lead to the lowest, particularly for hitters without much raw power like Holt. According to Fangraphs’ batted ball data, Holt had the 14th-lowest fly ball rate among the 278 hitters with at least 300 plate appearances in 2018. I’m not sure Holt is a true-talent .337-BABIP hitter, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to stabilize somewhere around .310-.320.The good news for Holt is that, while the BABIP saw a big jump this year, he’s also shown improvement in other areas as well. After carrying below-average walk rates for most of his career, his walk rate has jumped to double digits in each of the last two years. He also showed career-best power in 2018, though that didn’t look super sustainable. Still, combine all of that, and even with a little big of a step back on balls in play you’re still looking at a league-average hitter. That’s combined with a player who can still play all over the field (though probably not as well as when he first came up) and is likely the most liked and important player in the clubhouse. Seems like a useful player to have on your roster.

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stare 01-06-2019, 23:14
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stare 09-06-2019, 04:00
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stare 12-06-2019, 04:43
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stare 15-06-2019, 10:18
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stare 15-06-2019, 12:42
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stare 20-06-2019, 10:10
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stare 21-06-2019, 05:27
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stare 10-07-2019, 09:32
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stare 13-07-2019, 06:22
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